Cermati Invest Weekly Update 6 Januari 2025
Ulasan Pasar
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| IHSG | 1.82% | 7,164.43 |
| ISSI | 0.97% | 215.93 |
| IDX30 | 1.55% | 429.75 |
| FTSE Indonesia | 1.49% | 3,256.28 |
| MSCI Indonesia | 1.23% | 6,720.04 |
| USD/IDR | -0.28% | 16,185.00 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 3 Januari 2025
IHSG & Saham Pekan Ini
IHSG, masuk minggu ke-2 tahun 2025. Sejak awal tahun IHSG sudah bergerak naik (+)1.82% ke posisi 7164.43. Melanjutkan arah pergerakan IHSG di sepanjang tahun 2024 yang berada di zona negatif, tahun 2025 ini diprediksikan IHSG masih akan turun minimal menuju support gap terdekat yaitu 6983 sedangkan resistance gap 7125 dan 7324 akan dituju kemudian apabila IHSG bergerak naik.
Indeks terbaik awal 2025 ini, masih dipegang oleh Pefindo 25, jauh di bawahnya ada indeks IDX80 dan IDX30.
Bagaimana dengan prediksi sektor untuk tahun 2025, bisnis apa yang bagus? Terlihat yang terbaik untuk dicermati adalah sektor Teknologi, jauh di bawahnya ada sektor Basic Industry, Energy, dan Infrastruktur.
Saham, dua emiten urutan teratas kapitalisasi pasar sepanjang 2024 sampai awal 2025 ini masih PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk. (BREN) & Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA). Untuk pilihan saham yang dapat dicermati pada pekan ke-2 ini adalah: BIPI, MAPI, INPC, SAME, MPPA, DOID, ELSA, TOBA, FILM.
Pergerakan Rupiah
Amerika Serikat masih menunggu pelantikan Presiden terpilih Donald Trump pada 20 Januari 2025 nanti, sehingga diprediksikan rupiah tidak ke mana-mana dan hanya bergerak di area Rp16.100—Rp16.331.
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | 0.73% | 2,639.12 |
| Crude Oil WTI | 4.76% | 73.96 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | -5.54% | 4,368.00 |
| Natural Gas | -4.55% | 3.35 |
| Newcastle Coal | -2.56% | 123.50 |
| Nickel | 0.00% | 15,876.00 |
| Tin | 1.03% | 29,108.00 |
| Copper | -1.06% | 8,900.00 |
| Aluminium | -2.50% | 2,496.00 |
| US Soybeans | 1.20% | 991.75 |
| Silver | 0.82% | 30.07 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 3 Januari 2025
Emas
Harga emas dunia bergerak sideways dalam area US$2594—US$2693, sampai pada rilis data Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) pada Jumat malam pekan ini.
Pekan ini harga emas murni dan emas digital masih sama, tidak ke mana-mana hanya bergerak dalam kisaran Rp1.360.000—Rp1.410.000. Harga emas fisik atau logam mulia biasanya lebih tinggi Rp60.000—Rp100.000 per gramnya.
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | -0.60% | 42,732.13 |
| S&P 500 | -0.47% | 5,942.50 |
| FTSE 100 | 0.91% | 8,223.98 |
| DAX | -0.39% | 19,906.08 |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.96% | 39,894.54 |
| Hang Seng | -1.64% | 19,760.27 |
| Shanghai | -5.55% | 3,211.43 |
| KOSPI | 1.54% | 2,441.92 |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 3 Januari 2025
Reksa Dana & Surat Berharga
Reksa dana, tidak banyak yang dapat kami pilihkan untuk kamu pada pekan ini selain reksa dana jenis pasar uang, dan sedikit saja dari reksa dana jenis pendapatan tetap dan campuran. Masih awal kuartal, kamu dapat pula cermati reksa dana Trimegah Fixed Income Plan dan HPAM Pendapatan Tetap Prima, yang memiliki karakteristik waktu yang tepat untuk masuk, yaitu pada setiap awal kuartal karena reksa dana jenis pendapatan tetap ini memberi dividen di setiap akhir kuartal.
Surat berharga, dapat cermati beberapa obligasi yang kami pilihkan dalam tabel.
Pasar Investasi 2025 DIbuka dengan Beragam Sentimen Ekonomi
Pasar keuangan Indonesia mulai membaik pada pekan pertama 2025. Pelaku pasar pun berharap akan adanya January effect, setelah gagal mengalami fenonema window dressing tahun lalu. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) masih berada di level psikologis 7.100, setelah sempat mendekati level psikologis 7.200 di awal sesi I perdagangan akhir pekan lalu. Di lain sisi, pasar juga masih menimbang dampak dari pulihnya aktivitas manufaktur RI dan kenaikan Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) 12% untuk barang dan jasa mewah. Data Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) yang dirilis S&P Global, Kamis (2/1/2025), menunjukkan PMI manufaktur Indonesia ada di 51,2 pada Desember 2024. Angka ini memastikan PMI Indonesia kembali ke jalur ekspansif setelah terkontraksi selama lima bulan. Angka PMI ini juga menjadi yang tertinggi sejak tujuh bulan terakhir. Seperti diketahui, PMI Manufaktur Indonesia mengalami kontraksi selama lima bulan beruntun yakni pada Juli (49,3), Agustus (48,9), September (49,2), Oktober (49,2), dan November 2024 (49,6). Selain itu, kenaikan tarif PPN sebesar 12% yang hanya menyasar barang dan jasa mewah juga turut menopang IHSG. Hari ini, pemerintah akan mengumumkan realisasi APBN 2024, mulai dari pendapatan negara hingga pajak. Menarik disimak seberapa besar pendapatan negara, terutama pajak sepanjang 2024. Patut dilihat pula seberapa besar defisit anggaran 2024 serta realisasi belanja negara. Pada pekan ini Bank Indonesia (BI) akan mengumumkan cadangan devisa Indonesia periode Desember 2024. Sebelumnya, BI melaporkan posisi cadangan devisa pada akhir November 2024 US$150,2 miliar. Realisasi tersebut turun US$1 miliar dibandingkan posisi pada akhir Oktober 2024.
COMPOSITE INDEX compare to USDIDR & GOLD since 2025 (YtD)
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Insight Money Syariah | 1632.6623 | 0.52% | 1.48% | 3.04% | 0.01% | 5.89% | 16.33% | 63.27% | 30 Sep 2015 | 134.63 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1505.0562 | 0.46% | 1.39% | 2.76% | 0.02% | 5.48% | 14.21% | 50.51% | 23 Dec 2016 | 702.49 B |
| TRIM Kas 2 Kelas A | 1896.9634 | 0.46% | 1.34% | 2.70% | 0.02% | 5.21% | 13.68% | 89.70% | 8 Apr 2008 | 3.25 T |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1708.03 | 0.45% | 1.35% | 2.72% | 0.03% | 5.49% | 14.79% | 70.80% | 8 Jun 2015 | 213.36 B |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1578.5701 | 0.45% | 1.48% | 3.34% | 0.01% | 5.63% | 14.74% | 57.86% | 13 Apr 2018 | 4.08 B |
| Trimegah Kas Syariah | 1426.301 | 0.44% | 1.31% | 2.66% | 0.01% | 5.30% | 13.80% | 42.63% | 30 Dec 2016 | 1.53 T |
| Bahana Likuid Syariah Kelas G | 1205.05 | 0.43% | 1.31% | 2.61% | 0.01% | 5.29% | 12.71% | 20.51% | 12 Jul 2016 | 478.61 B |
| BRI Seruni Pasar Uang III | 1758.109 | 0.42% | 1.33% | 2.84% | 0.02% | 5.44% | 12.63% | 75.81% | 16 Feb 2010 | 1.51 T |
| Syailendra Dana Kas | 1684.1545 | 0.42% | 1.26% | 2.54% | 0.01% | 5.00% | 13.57% | 68.42% | 12 Jun 2015 | 2.57 T |
| Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang | 1610.16 | 0.40% | 1.22% | 2.48% | 0.02% | 4.88% | 13.27% | 61.02% | 10 Sep 2015 | 88.33 B |
| Sequis Liquid Prima | 1433.9077 | 0.39% | 1.19% | 2.39% | 0.01% | 4.76% | 11.67% | 43.39% | 8 Sep 2016 | 123.60 B |
| HPAM Ultima Money Market | 1609.8708 | 0.38% | 1.29% | 2.64% | -0.03% | 5.12% | 14.09% | 60.99% | 10 Jun 2015 | 972.78 B |
| Bahana Dana Likuid Kelas G | 1868.02 | 0.35% | 1.21% | 2.45% | 0.01% | 4.80% | 11.33% | 86.80% | 27 May 1997 | 3.84 T |
| BRI Seruni Pasar Uang Syariah | 1330.0269 | 0.22% | 1.15% | 2.53% | 0.02% | 5.31% | 12.96% | 33.00% | 19 Jul 2018 | 353.57 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 3 Januari 2025
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Insight Renewable Energy Fund | 2293.0615 | 0.70% | 2.27% | 4.10% | 0.02% | 7.49% | 19.71% | 129.31% | 22 Jun 2011 | 1.25 T |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 5063.0132 | 0.60% | 1.87% | 4.17% | 0.02% | 7.47% | 23.04% | 406.30% | 13 Jan 2005 | 1.97 T |
| TRIM Dana Tetap 2 Kelas A | 3218.89 | 0.32% | 1.11% | 3.68% | 0.08% | 6.17% | 14.91% | 221.89% | 13 May 2008 | 871.31 B |
| HPAM Government Bond | 1600.0702 | -0.07% | -0.48% | 3.61% | -0.06% | 3.63% | 12.71% | 60.01% | 18 May 2016 | 21.68 B |
| Trimegah Fixed Income Plan | 1151.4557 | -0.78% | -0.01% | 1.53% | 0.01% | 1.69% | 5.46% | 15.15% | 23 May 2019 | 1.90 T |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 3 Januari 2025
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| TRIM Syariah Berimbang | 3300.42 | 1.62% | -1.60% | 10.74% | -0.55% | 7.98% | 7.88% | 230.04% | 27 Dec 2006 | 22.18 B |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1787.04 | 0.98% | -4.98% | 7.44% | -0.33% | 3.15% | 4.93% | 78.70% | 28 Dec 2018 | 260.24 B |
| Syailendra Balanced Opportunity Fund | 3257.33 | 0.89% | -2.51% | 1.07% | -0.64% | 5.58% | -0.13% | 225.73% | 22 Apr 2008 | 72.78 B |
| TRIM Kombinasi 2 | 2708.44 | 0.52% | -5.01% | 5.39% | -0.35% | 1.14% | 2.72% | 170.84% | 10 Nov 2006 | 27.11 B |
| HPAM Flexi Indonesia Sehat Kelas A | 1928.4825 | -0.74% | -4.50% | 6.10% | -0.07% | 10.53% | 14.85% | 92.85% | 2 Mar 2011 | 84.79 B |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1438.6843 | -1.24% | -4.88% | 2.65% | -0.16% | 6.92% | 29.21% | 43.87% | 25 Sep 2017 | 84.79 B |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 3 Januari 2025
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| SAM Indonesian Equity Fund | 2375.02 | 3.09% | 1.02% | 7.31% | -0.12% | 2.30% | 19.12% | 137.50% | 18 Oct 2011 | 980.51 B |
| Syailendra Equity Opportunity Fund | 4088.87 | 1.93% | -2.79% | 3.37% | -0.34% | 0.03% | 4.29% | 308.89% | 7 Jun 2007 | 159.85 B |
| TRIM Kapital Plus | 4437.98 | 1.51% | -2.24% | 5.78% | 0.30% | 0.88% | 15.66% | 343.80% | 18 Apr 2008 | 407.82 B |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan | 2880.02 | -0.84% | -2.21% | 5.05% | -0.29% | -1.57% | 20.32% | 188.00% | 4 Dec 2018 | 44.15 B |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan Syariah | 2235.05 | -1.29% | -4.76% | 8.60% | -0.40% | -4.41% | 4.05% | 123.51% | 5 Sep 2018 | 16.62 B |
| HPAM Ekuitas Syariah Berkah | 1880.2933 | -3.20% | -10.15% | -2.67% | -1.44% | 13.98% | 73.48% | 88.03% | 20 Jan 2020 | 1.70 T |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 3 Januari 2025
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana USD | NAV | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| STAR Fixed Income Dollar | 1.0289 | 0.32% | 0.93% | 3.39% | 0.01% | 5.52% | -8.05% | 2.89% | 10 Jul 2017 | 10.02 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income USD Kelas A | 0.9571 | -0.81% | -2.86% | 0.96% | -0.03% | 0.50% | -2.84% | -4.29% | 8 Mar 2021 | 1.38 M |
| Batavia Technology Sharia Equity USD | 1.1698 | -0.92% | 4.00% | 0.61% | 0.00% | 21.45% | - | 16.98% | 16 Feb 2022 | 76.09 M |
| Batavia USD Bond Fund | 1.0224 | -1.15% | -3.45% | -0.71% | -0.05% | -1.44% | - | 2.24% | 18 Oct 2022 | 21.55 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Greater China Equity USD Kelas A | 0.601 | -1.45% | -11.59% | -2.23% | 0.00% | -0.73% | -39.56% | -39.90% | 15 Jun 2020 | 5.28 M |
| Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific USD Kelas A | 0.9353 | -1.50% | -9.28% | -6.99% | 0.00% | -1.66% | -25.06% | -6.47% | 28 Oct 2016 | 2.85 M |
| BRI Melati Premium Dollar | 1.3637 | -2.69% | -5.25% | 0.05% | -0.18% | -2.63% | -4.64% | 36.37% | 19 Feb 2007 | 2.04 M |
| Batavia Global ESG Sharia Equity USD | 1.1441 | -4.32% | -3.87% | -1.03% | 0.00% | 2.50% | 3.94% | 14.41% | 27 Jan 2021 | 13.22 M |
| BRI G20 Sharia Equity Fund Dollar | 1.1838 | -5.05% | -5.82% | -7.85% | 0.00% | 3.55% | 2.49% | 18.38% | 3 Dec 2019 | 1.88 M |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 3 Januari 2025
Surat Utang/Obligasi
| NAMA OBLIGASI | ISIN | MATA UANG | KUPON | TANGGAL JATUH TEMPO | INDIKASI HARGA BELI | INDIKASI HARGA JUAL | INDIKASI YIELD | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FR0087 | IDG000015207 | IDR | 6.50% | 15-Feb-31 | 98.3 | 97.3 | 6.84% | BBB |
| FR0097 | IDG000020900 | IDR | 7.13% | 15-Jun-43 | 100.75 | 99.75 | 7.05% | BBB |
| PBS005 | IDP000001505 | IDR | 6.75% | 15-Apr-43 | 99.3 | 98.3 | 6.82% | BBB |
| INKP01CCN1 | IDA0001069C2 | IDR | 11.00% | 5-Jun-25 | 101.5 | 100.5 | 7.69% | idA+ |
| LPPI02ACN1 | IDA0001331A0 | IDR | 10.50% | 4-Jul-26 | 101.25 | 100.25 | 9.75% | idA |
Provided by Cermati Invest, last update 3 Januari 2025
Event Calendar
| Monday, 06 January 2025 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:15 AM | US | Fed Daly Speech | |||
| 7:30 AM | JP | Jibun Bank Services PMI Final DEC | 50.5 | 51.4 | 51.4 |
| 8:45 AM | CN | Caixin Services PMI DEC | 51.5 | 51.7 | 51.1 |
| 3:55 PM | DE | HCOB Composite PMI Final DEC | 47.2 | 47.8 | 47.8 |
| 3:55 PM | DE | HCOB Services PMI Final DEC | 49.3 | 51.0 | 51.0 |
| 4:30 PM | GB | S&P Global Services PMI Final DEC | 50.8 | 51.4 | 51.4 |
| 8:00 PM | DE | Inflation Rate YoY Prel DEC | 2.20% | 2.40% | 2.50% |
| 8:00 PM | DE | Inflation Rate MoM Prel DEC | -0.20% | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 9:15 PM | US | Fed Cook Speech | |||
| 9:45 PM | US | S&P Global Composite PMI Final DEC | 54.9 | 56.6 | 53.0 |
| 9:45 PM | US | S&P Global Services PMI Final DEC | 56.1 | 58.5 | 58.5 |
| 10:00 PM | US | Factory Orders MoM NOV | 0.20% | -0.30% | 0.30% |
| Tuesday, 07 January 2025 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 7:01 AM | GB | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY DEC | -3.40% | -0.20% | -2.80% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Halifax House Price Index MoM DEC | 1.30% | 0.80% | 0.80% |
| 2:00 PM | GB | Halifax House Price Index YoY DEC | 4.80% | 4.60% | |
| 3:30 PM | DE | HCOB Construction PMI DEC | 38.0 | 37.8 | |
| 4:30 PM | GB | S&P Global Construction PMI DEC | 55.2 | 54.5 | 54.8 |
| 7:00 PM | IN | Fiscal Year GDP Growth Prel 2025-24 | 8.20% | 6.50% | |
| 8:00 PM | US | Fed Barkin Speech | |||
| 8:30 PM | US | Balance of Trade NOV | $-73.8B | $-77.5B | $-70B |
| 8:30 PM | US | Exports NOV | $265.7B | $264B | |
| 8:30 PM | US | Imports NOV | $339.6B | $334B | |
| 10:00 PM | US | ISM Services PMI DEC | 52.1 | 53.5 | 54.0 |
| 10:00 PM | US | JOLTs Job Openings NOV | 7.744M | 7.65M | 7.69M |
| Wednesday, 08 January 2025 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 4:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change JAN/03 | -1.442M | ||
| 12:00 PM | JP | Consumer Confidence DEC | 36.4 | 36.6 | 36.4 |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Factory Orders MoM NOV | -1.50% | 0.40% | 0.70% |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Retail Sales MoM NOV | -1.50% | 0.40% | 0.70% |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Retail Sales YoY NOV | 1.00% | 1.70% | |
| 7:00 PM | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate JAN/03 | 6.97% | ||
| 8:15 PM | US | ADP Employment Change DEC | 146K | 143K | 140K |
| 8:30 PM | US | Fed Waller Speech | |||
| 10:30 PM | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change JAN/03 | -1.178M | ||
| 10:30 PM | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change JAN/03 | 7.717M | ||
| Thursday, 09 January 2025 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 2:00 AM | US | FOMC Minutes | |||
| 2:00 PM | DE | Balance of Trade NOV | €13.4B | €14.4B | €15.0B |
| 2:00 PM | DE | Exports MoM NOV | -2.80% | ||
| 2:00 PM | DE | Industrial Production MoM NOV | -1.00% | 0.50% | 0.80% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims JAN/04 | 211K | 210K | |
| 9:00 PM | US | Fed Harker Speech | |||
| Friday, 10 January 2025 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 12:40 AM | US | Fed Barkin Speech | |||
| 1:30 AM | US | Fed Schmid Speech | |||
| 1:35 AM | US | Fed Bowman Speech | |||
| 6:30 AM | JP | Household Spending MoM NOV | 2.90% | -1.40% | |
| 6:30 AM | JP | Household Spending YoY NOV | -1.30% | -0.70% | -0.60% |
| 5:30 PM | IN | Industrial Production YoY NOV | 3.50% | ||
| 5:30 PM | IN | Manufacturing Production YoY NOV | 4.10% | ||
| 8:30 PM | US | Non Farm Payrolls DEC | 227K | 150K | 200K |
| 8:30 PM | US | Unemployment Rate DEC | 4.20% | 4.20% | 4.30% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM DEC | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| 8:30 PM | US | Participation Rate DEC | 62.50% | 62.80% | |
| 10:00 PM | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JAN | 74.0 | 74.5 | 75.0 |
| CN | New Yuan Loans DEC | CNY580B | CNY690.0B | ||
| Sunday, 12 January 2025 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 8:30 AM | CN | Inflation Rate YoY DEC | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.40% |
| 8:30 AM | CN | Inflation Rate MoM DEC | -0.60% | 0.20% | |
| 8:30 AM | CN | PPI YoY DEC | -2.50% | -2.40% | -2.80% |
| 10:00 AM | CN | Balance of Trade DEC | $97.44B | $ 85B | |
| 10:00 AM | CN | Exports YoY DEC | 6.70% | ||
| 10:00 AM | CN | Imports YoY DEC | -3.90% | ||
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.
Baca Juga Cermati Invest Weekly Update Sebelumnya:
- Cermati Invest Weekly Update 30 Desember 2024
- Cermati Invest Weekly Update 23 Desember 2024
- Cermati Invest Weekly Update 16 Desember 2024
- Cermati Invest Weekly Update 9 Desember 2024